Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?” a 92% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 9% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 92% |
| Volume | $680,398 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
NVIDIA holds a dominant 76.5% implied probability as the largest company by market capitalization at the end of December 2026, driven by its entrenched leadership in AI accelerators and sustained data-center revenue growth that continues to outpace peers. Strong recent earnings have highlighted robust gross margins and expanding customer adoption of next-generation GPUs, supporting its elevated valuation relative to broader semiconductor and technology benchmarks. Apple's 15.2% odds reflect steady services and hardware performance alongside AI feature rollouts, while Alphabet's 8.5% positioning ties to cloud and search momentum. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming quarterly results and any shifts in corporate AI capital expenditures that could influence relative market caps through year-end.