Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?” a 93% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 8% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 93% |
| Volume | $2,742,996 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Elevated inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by persistent energy and supply shocks tied to Middle East tensions, has solidified market-implied odds of no rate cuts in 2026 at 88.8%. The federal funds rate has remained in the 3.50%-3.75% range since early 2026 amid resilient economic growth, stable labor conditions, and recent inflation readings near 3.4%-3.7%. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s FOMC has shifted away from easing signals, with dot-plot projections showing several officials favoring hikes by year-end, while incoming data such as softer retail sales and moderating price pressures have tempered but not overturned expectations for a hold. Upcoming September and later FOMC meetings, alongside further inflation and employment releases, remain key catalysts for any repricing.