US recession by end of 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “US recession by end of 2026?” a 94% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 7% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 94% |
| Volume | $1,731,502 |
| Closes | January 31, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Resilient U.S. economic data continue to anchor trader sentiment against a recession by year-end 2026, reflected in the 93.5% market-implied probability for “No.” August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, the Sahm Rule remained deeply negative, and the 10Y-2Y Treasury spread stood positive near 41 basis points. Solid GDP growth near 2% annualized, ongoing AI-related capital spending, and stable consumer demand have kept leading indicators above recession thresholds. The New York Fed’s yield-curve model currently assigns roughly 33% odds of a downturn over the next twelve months, well below levels that have historically preceded NBER dates. Still, an abrupt escalation in Middle East tensions, a sharper-than-expected inflation rebound prompting additional Fed tightening, or a sudden retrenchment in AI investment could rapidly shift the balance.